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PS4 leads Xbox One by at least 40% in global sales: Has Sony already won this console generation?

PS4 leads Xbox One by at least 40% in global sales: Has Sony already won this console generation?
PS4 leads Xbox One by at least 40% in global sales: Has Sony already won this console generation?

Both the Xbox One and PS4 will celebrate their first birthday next month, and as they head into their second holiday season and first full fourth-quarter availability, it’s interesting to take a look at how the two consoles have performed so far. All evidence suggests a significant advantage for the PlayStation 4, with a sales gap of at least 40% between the two systems, and possibly as large as 100% (2:1 in favor of the PS4).

That figure — a total sales gap of 40% between the two consoles — comes courtesy of Ars Technica, which performed some analysis based on reported sales of all consoles, previous sales figures, and remarks from executives from both Microsoft and Sony. The data, which tallies nicely with our own analysis of eight-gen console sales, represents the best-case scenario, using figures that maximize the Xbox One sales results and minimize the PS4′s performance. In reality, the PS4 could be running at 2:1 advantage or even more, and that’s before we head into the holiday season.

Is this a problem? In the short term, no. The fact is, the Xbox 360 had an equally large lead over the PS3 for years. Sony’s console wasn’t just plagued by its high price, it was stuck with minimal attach rates and, initially, lower-quality titles. It was difficult to optimize for the PS3′s Cell processor, and a number of its first games struggled to match the Xbox 360′s quality, much less surpass it. Throw in Sony’s epic screwup around rumble (and the unmourned, incredibly-annoying Sixaxis controller), the initially uncertain value of its Blu-ray player, and a host of hubris and jaw-dropping statements, and the Xbox 360 was the odds-on favorite to win the console generation. In reality, the two systems ended up at rough parity with the PS3 actually outselling the Xbox 360 over the very long term.

Much ink has been spilled on whether or not the Xbox One is less popular because it can’t handle quite as high a resolution, or because its scaler creates graphical oddities, or because it was priced too high with a bundled Kinect sensor. This last hits closest to the mark, but I think the fundamental problem Microsoft is still trying to crawl out from under with Xbox One is that the narrative has been dominated by two threads:

  1. What the Xbox One can or can’t do, relative to its own hardware restrictions, DRM policies, Kinect 2.0, many other facets of the console’s design.
  2. The fact that its graphics fidelity, load times, install times, etc. are often somewhat worse than the PS4.

This lack of focus, this inability to explain why anyone should buy a Xbox One in the first place, is most likely at the heart of the console’s sales problems. It wasn’t for lack of trying, but Microsoft was forced to deconstruct every single reason it tried to build into the Xbox One as a point of differentiation. Kinect? Killed. Always-on? Turned off. Phoning home? We’re off the hook.

This Christmas, the company is turning to Halo — or, rather, to a master collection of multiple previous Halo titles offered up at a price point it hopes will leave fans slobbering their way out of Walmart with new consoles clutched in grubby fingers, visions of Cortana — now rendered in glorious 1080p — dancing in their heads.

Should the Halo effect work, Microsoft could close the gap with the PS4 in several giant leaps this holiday season. If it doesn’t, well, we’re playing a long game here. There’s no indication that Microsoft’s Xbox One will drop into the kind of death spiral that might see it blocked out of top tier gaming development.

Speaking of consoles that’ve been dumped in a corner and forgotten, this Christmas will be the Wii U’s sink-or-swim moment as well. With a new Smash Brothers release, it’s possible that the fighting game will be the coup de grace that convinces players who’ve been on the fence about new Mario titles or games like Hyrule Warriors to finally leap over and take theWii U plunge. It’s got to be what Nintendo is betting on — if new titles don’t finally send Wii U sales spiking, the company will be better off pursuing a fast replacement strategy and getting something on the market that consumers will actually want to buy. Before you flame me for that, keep in mind that consoles take 18-24 months to develop — so a Wii U successor that was meant to bring Nintendo up to parity with Sony and Microsoft wouldn’t debut for several years yet. Given the weak sales of the Wii U to date, it’s not unreasonable to say that a failed recovery necesitates the need for a quicker replacement cycle than Nintendo might’ve otherwise preferred.

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